Has UAE just tacitly accepted Iran's truce?
The focus must therefore shift to America
I was just reading this incredible analysis from Policy Tensor which I strongly advise you to read. It argues that America is staring at a serious strategic defeat because they cannot keep the Strait of Hormuz open and they can’t stop asymmetric (drone) strikes on their regional allies. It turned up immediately after what appears to be a significant development in this conflict.
This morning, the UAE came under attack from missiles once again. Residents of Dubai were advised to stay indoors as the anti-missile system dealt with a fresh round of attacks. Moments later, footage emerged that Dubai airport had suffered a direct hit.
For the UAE,‘normality’ is of high importance. Just considering Britain, there are 240,000 British expats living there. If there’s an exodus because people feel unsafe, it will seriously hit Dubai’s infamous real estate sector. Dubai’s raison d’etre will have been damaged, possibly forever.
To stay, things need to feel normal, things need to feel safe. What Iran is demonstrating is they can break that reputation for safety and normality, and it doesn’t look possible for UAE or America to really stop it. They’ve been hitting Dubai airport regularly for a week now, and just scored another direct hit.
What happened next I think supports the Policy Tensor analysis. After releasing statements about what they had hit, Iran immediately released a statement saying the attacks will now stop as long as the surrounding nations don’t retaliate.
It’s an offer of a truce of sorts, because Iran have achieved their immediate objectives. They can disrupt a key pillar of the UAE’s prosperity, as well as hitting key US military infrastructure all around those nations. So what does the UAE make of this offer of a truce? Well literally within minutes, Emirates airlines announced they would resume flights. That tells you two things, that the UAE take Iran at their word, and that tacitly they accept the terms of that offer. Emirates simply wouldn’t risk their reputation and patient safety unless they really believed those attacks were going to now stop. Moving as quickly as they did tells you how important normality is for Dubai.
This now puts the ball squarely back in the USA’s court, whose strategy is now barely coherent. Demanding ‘unconditional surrender’ from a nation that is currently choking out the Strait of Hormuz and damaging the economic interests of the whole region is, shall we say, wishful thinking.
UAE clearly don’t want these attacks to continue, and the terms of the agreement they seem to have tacitly accepted means no attacks on Iran can launch from UAE states. I must stress this is my interpretation, and it seems they’re either being reckless or they’ve made a calculated decision which leverages Iran’s offer. Political capital in support of the USA is rapidly declining in the UAE, with businessmen openly rebuking Trump’s decision to plunge the region into war. Quite what Trump and his odd fish administration decide to do next is anyone’s guess.
I've supported a lot of Trumps decisions in the past and believe that he was always trying to do what's right.
I understand that there is always information that we are not privy to, so we cannot possibly see the "big" picture and there may very well be "reasons".
However, I can't help but think that Trump is now Bibi's bitch and is just doing his bidding.
Is that the price you pay for not having your head blown off on national TV?
Any Congressional Representative that doesn't honor our Constitutional Republic responsibility of office to either declare War or shut down this ill conceived Zionist promoted enterprize of the President needs removal from office or a 250 year reminder of Lexington and Concord.
And yes, you can have the right to bear arms and go and buy a drone.