As bad as this is, it’s good in the long run because it will spur the transformation of our military. It’s better we find out these shortcomings now with Iran rather than later with China.
There is hope if we learn from our failures. And I think Trump and Hegseth are up to the task. It's exactly the seriousness of these failures that lay the groundwork for real transformation, not just incremental ones.
In my case, instead of talking with AI about what has happened, I talked about what could happen going forward. I came up with lots of things we could do to change the dynamic we find ourselves in today. That will make a huge difference in the years ahead, not just in dealing with Iran, but in dealing with anyone else who attempts the strategy that Iran has used.
I'm going to follow this up Dean - I'm sorry to say that I believe you're likely mistaken. The cost of the strait of hormuz being closed is something everyone will feel very very soon. Whatever bravado Trump and Hegseth project outwards, it's not backed by reality on the ground. The greatest military on earth (as they claim) is being shown up by a smart military response with a strategic asset that literally everyone knew they'd leverage.
Trump can't articulate a war aim. Iran can. Their strategy is to keep that strait closed until the global economy breaks. They've kept it closed for two weeks now, which means only one thing: Iran are winning.
I was talking long term not short term. Short term, of course, is much more difficult to know what will happen, since war is dynamic. Iran shuts down the strait, we bypass it with the Saudi pipeline, oil from strategic reserves, and escorting ships through it. Iran can't afford to keep this up either. They can't pay their soldiers, and the soldiers trying to keep control in the cities are now being blown up by drones. They will begin to lose control in areas, and that will spread. That gives them an incentive to stop. I assume China wants them to stop as well, and will put pressure on them.
I don't want Trump to be too specific on war aims, as that locks him in. Right now, at any point, he can say we're ending the war as we've achieved our objectives of degrading Iran's capabilities and giving the Iranian people their chance to overthrow the regime if that's what they want to do. Is Iran going to continue when we've stopped? If they do, they invite the entire world to come against them.
In warfare, there is always aspects of psychological manipulation that takes place, on both sides. There are things suppressed and things exaggerated to paint a specific narratives.
During Covid, caution was necessary. Reality was difficult to grasps. Sources of information was difficult to discern. Now, with the AI speed of manipulation tools we are stepping into new frontier of warfare.
It is sad to say, in the U.S. there are factions desperate for the Iran conflict to fail in favor of Iran current regime. This mainly stems from an extreme deep seated hatred towards Trump.
We need to be careful of stepping into any narrative that coalesces around fear and hate. Hatred is pure evil, enslaving its victims. Within Islam there are factions driven to steal, kill and destroy. Throughout human history we see many other groups rallying together, cemented by the unifying glue of hatred against others. This unifying force operates in shadows, invisible to those imprisoned. Those shackled believe their cause is righteous.
My prayer is that each of us would be freed from the steal, kill and destroy enslavement.
Excellent job Phil! Cross-posted to all my readers.
The magnitude of the retaliation is significant and has been very much under-reported in the US media (among others).
As bad as this is, it’s good in the long run because it will spur the transformation of our military. It’s better we find out these shortcomings now with Iran rather than later with China.
There is hope if we learn from our failures. And I think Trump and Hegseth are up to the task. It's exactly the seriousness of these failures that lay the groundwork for real transformation, not just incremental ones.
In my case, instead of talking with AI about what has happened, I talked about what could happen going forward. I came up with lots of things we could do to change the dynamic we find ourselves in today. That will make a huge difference in the years ahead, not just in dealing with Iran, but in dealing with anyone else who attempts the strategy that Iran has used.
I'm going to follow this up Dean - I'm sorry to say that I believe you're likely mistaken. The cost of the strait of hormuz being closed is something everyone will feel very very soon. Whatever bravado Trump and Hegseth project outwards, it's not backed by reality on the ground. The greatest military on earth (as they claim) is being shown up by a smart military response with a strategic asset that literally everyone knew they'd leverage.
Trump can't articulate a war aim. Iran can. Their strategy is to keep that strait closed until the global economy breaks. They've kept it closed for two weeks now, which means only one thing: Iran are winning.
I was talking long term not short term. Short term, of course, is much more difficult to know what will happen, since war is dynamic. Iran shuts down the strait, we bypass it with the Saudi pipeline, oil from strategic reserves, and escorting ships through it. Iran can't afford to keep this up either. They can't pay their soldiers, and the soldiers trying to keep control in the cities are now being blown up by drones. They will begin to lose control in areas, and that will spread. That gives them an incentive to stop. I assume China wants them to stop as well, and will put pressure on them.
I don't want Trump to be too specific on war aims, as that locks him in. Right now, at any point, he can say we're ending the war as we've achieved our objectives of degrading Iran's capabilities and giving the Iranian people their chance to overthrow the regime if that's what they want to do. Is Iran going to continue when we've stopped? If they do, they invite the entire world to come against them.
In warfare, there is always aspects of psychological manipulation that takes place, on both sides. There are things suppressed and things exaggerated to paint a specific narratives.
During Covid, caution was necessary. Reality was difficult to grasps. Sources of information was difficult to discern. Now, with the AI speed of manipulation tools we are stepping into new frontier of warfare.
It is sad to say, in the U.S. there are factions desperate for the Iran conflict to fail in favor of Iran current regime. This mainly stems from an extreme deep seated hatred towards Trump.
We need to be careful of stepping into any narrative that coalesces around fear and hate. Hatred is pure evil, enslaving its victims. Within Islam there are factions driven to steal, kill and destroy. Throughout human history we see many other groups rallying together, cemented by the unifying glue of hatred against others. This unifying force operates in shadows, invisible to those imprisoned. Those shackled believe their cause is righteous.
My prayer is that each of us would be freed from the steal, kill and destroy enslavement.